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HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 2, 2018 10:49 PM

I'm editing the end of this post to keep it updated as best I can.

I know that PT is how long a horse will train. Not necessarily how hard, or if they level out in a good spot. Regardless, personally, I only keep higher PT's, but I want to try and come up with a graph to see if that supports, or doesn't support my strategies....

So.....

Would any of the more establish players that have had a premium account please do some research for me? If possible I am looking for altered show horses that have been owned by players that can say with somewhat certainty that the horses were shown 2x a week, every month (IE have a premium account with auto show settings, and the horse hasn't been sold)

Also, as I'm trying to limit as many variables as possible, please only look at horses that are 16 years old.

Sorry, per usual I'm not explaining very well.

So, what I'm asking of you, please, is find me the PT, and points of all of your 16 year old show horses. (if you can be relatively certain they were altered as a foal, and have had every oppurtunity to show).

Although pictures are always cool, just data points are fine. I'm going to go through my horses, create an example horse search, and make an example data points.

Graph in Progress
https://www.desmos.com/calculator/q5czp1h23r

Up through Blue Valley's horses now. About 200 data points.

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/heco56u0kc

Skipped ahead to Painted Dream's horses.

Do you think I should make more graph's for different ages, or put it all on the same graph with different color points for different ages?

First two pages of Kintara's horses added

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/pyfwbpmbnc

First search of Kintara's horses added.

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/uwu022pyr2

Purple means 16YOs. Orange means 15YOs

Added 4 more pages worth of horses

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qhcff45heb

I know it was unscientific of me to change the variable and add 18YO's but they are now red X's. But I was curious to see what the higher PT's would do. So I'll just make sure to keep them a different color.

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 2, 2018 10:52 PM

Here's my example search:

http://hj2.huntandjump.com/adv_search.php?runsearch=1&status=any&ageg=&agel=&agee=16&erag=&eral=&erae=&heightg=&heightl=&heighte=&boneg=&bonel=&bonee=&f_basic=none&f_adv=none&f_limit=25&gelding=1&spayedmare=1&bty=1&lined=lined&foundation=1&name=&name_lm=like&color=&color_lm=like&owner=15552&owner_lm=like&breeder=15552&breeder_lm=like&sire=&sire_lm=like&dam=&dam_lm=like&barn=&barn_lm=like&pasture=&past_lm=like&tattoo=&tat_lm=like&tat_and=and&club=&bc_lm=like&bc_and=and&e1=&e2=&a1=&a4=&a2=&a3=&f1=&f2=&p1=&p2=&s1=&s2=&s3=&c1=&c2=&c3=&d1=&d2=&g1=&g2=&ch1=&ch2=&z1=&z2=&sa2=&sa1=&mu2=&mu1=&chn2=&chn1=&kit1=&kit2=&kit3=&kit4=&kit5=&kit6=&kit10=&kit11=&kit12=&kit7=&kit8=&kit9=&sp1=&sp2=&sp3=&spM=&pax31=&pax32=&rb1=&rb2=&o1=&o2=&l1=&l2=&ice1=&icei=&ice2=&ice3=&ice4=&ice5=&ice6=&ice7=&ice8=&ice9=&ice10=&ice11=&ice12=&ice13=&ice14=&nexn=&nexx=&nexr=&nexg=&nexb=&nexw=&rainr=&rainwt=&rainpl=&raint=&rainna=&brindle1=1&brindle2=1&wf1=1&wf2=1&wf3=1&wf4=1&wf5=1&wf6=1

Owned by me, bred by me, 16 years old, altered only.

Data points are

PT, All Time Points

(11, 704)
(11.7,1115)
(10.6, 833)
(11.3, 1088)

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 2, 2018 10:56 PM

Please let me know if this link works. It has all of the data points I have so far

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/1gzolwxjpm

DevilsParadise · Oct 2, 2018 11:01 PM

Do you want any older ones, too, or just 16? Here are my 16s, but if you want others, just ask :)

9.4, 656
9.3, 676
10.00, 1374
10.20, 1389
10.20, 1035
10.20, 1041
9.90, 860
11.10, 749
10.40, 1358
10.60, 2042
10.30, 1048
10.60, 1012
10.30, 858
10.30, 577
10.20, 2003
10.00, 1071
9.90, 662
10.20, 678
10.40, 1312
10.10, 583
9.70, 541

DevilsParadise · Oct 2, 2018 11:02 PM

The link works, but you might want to change the numbers on the legs of the graph. Right now, all I see are colored dots along the "y"axis, so it looks like everything is 0 on that one.

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 2, 2018 11:13 PM

Just 16,

Ok. Thanks. Do you happen to know how to do that? On my PC (which is broken) the touch screen will scale it right. On PC I can use the mouse.... On chromebooks I'm not sure.

Adding those data points now. :)

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 2, 2018 11:21 PM

Figured out how to change the x,y scale.

Thank you, added your points. This is cool so far!

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 12:52 AM

Oh no! Forgot to save it. I’ll add it back later

Bandit1119 · Oct 3, 2018 12:58 AM

I am not on a computer so can’t pull the data easily but here’s all my 16year olds. All my barns are on auto show so they should all have had 2x shows a week.

http://hj2.huntandjump.com/adv_search.php?runsearch=1&status=any&ageg=&agel=&agee=16&erag=&eral=&erae=&heightg=&heightl=&heighte=&boneg=&bonel=&bonee=&f_basic=none&f_adv=none&f_limit=25&gelding=1&spayedmare=1&bty=1&lined=lined&foundation=1&name=&name_lm=like&color=&color_lm=like&owner=137&owner_lm=like&breeder=137&breeder_lm=like&sire=&sire_lm=like&dam=&dam_lm=like&barn=&barn_lm=like&pasture=&past_lm=like&tattoo=&tat_lm=like&tat_and=and&club=&bc_lm=like&bc_and=and&e1=&e2=&a1=&a4=&a2=&a3=&f1=&f2=&p1=&p2=&s1=&s2=&s3=&c1=&c2=&c3=&d1=&d2=&g1=&g2=&ch1=&ch2=&z1=&z2=&sa2=&sa1=&mu2=&mu1=&chn2=&chn1=&kit1=&kit2=&kit3=&kit4=&kit5=&kit6=&kit10=&kit11=&kit12=&kit7=&kit8=&kit9=&sp1=&sp2=&sp3=&spM=&pax31=&pax32=&rb1=&rb2=&o1=&o2=&l1=&l2=&ice1=&icei=&ice2=&ice3=&ice4=&ice5=&ice6=&ice7=&ice8=&ice9=&ice10=&ice11=&ice12=&ice13=&ice14=&nexn=&nexx=&nexr=&nexg=&nexb=&nexw=&rainr=&rainwt=&rainpl=&raint=&rainna=&brindle1=1&brindle2=1&wf1=1&wf2=1&wf3=1&wf4=1&wf5=1&wf6=1

BlueValley · Oct 3, 2018 1:10 AM

I am also not on a computer, but I will do my best to extract the data points sometime tonight.

In the meantime: X

TallTree · Oct 3, 2018 1:36 AM

Ive been looking at this too. I think you need to control for horses that start showing as foals vs those that started showing older. (Older horses that dont show eat up years they could be advancing.) Or perhaps one could record the number of show events along with the pt.
Horses that level off at N or W classes earn vastly more points than those that level off at L or R classes. The key is, how do you determine where a horse is going to level off?

kintara · Oct 3, 2018 7:27 AM

Apparently I didn't breed any foals 16 hajinc years ago LOL, but here is a link to my 15yo's which should give you pretty much the same data. They are sorted on all time points, so the ones with the most points will be first. From a quick look in my top 20 point earners, the vast majority are 10-11PT, with a few 13+ PT

http://hj2.huntandjump.com/adv_search.php?runsearch=1&status=any&ageg=&agel=&agee=15&erag=&eral=&erae=&heightg=&heightl=&heighte=&boneg=&bonel=&bonee=&f_basic=none&f_adv=points_py&f_limit=25&gelding=1&spayedmare=1&bty=1&lined=lined&foundation=1&name=&name_lm=like&color=&color_lm=like&owner=145&owner_lm=like&breeder=&breeder_lm=like&sire=&sire_lm=like&dam=&dam_lm=like&barn=&barn_lm=like&pasture=&past_lm=like&tattoo=&tat_lm=like&tat_and=and&club=&bc_lm=like&bc_and=and&e1=&e2=&a1=&a4=&a2=&a3=&f1=&f2=&p1=&p2=&s1=&s2=&s3=&c1=&c2=&c3=&d1=&d2=&g1=&g2=&ch1=&ch2=&z1=&z2=&sa2=&sa1=&mu2=&mu1=&chn2=&chn1=&kit1=&kit2=&kit3=&kit4=&kit5=&kit6=&kit10=&kit11=&kit12=&kit7=&kit8=&kit9=&sp1=&sp2=&sp3=&spM=&pax31=&pax32=&rb1=&rb2=&o1=&o2=&l1=&l2=&ice1=&icei=&ice2=&ice3=&ice4=&ice5=&ice6=&ice7=&ice8=&ice9=&ice10=&ice11=&ice12=&ice13=&ice14=&nexn=&nexx=&nexr=&nexg=&nexb=&nexw=&rainr=&rainwt=&rainpl=&raint=&rainna=&brindle1=1&brindle2=1&wf1=1&wf2=1&wf3=1&wf4=1&wf5=1&wf6=1

kintara · Oct 3, 2018 7:30 AM

And this is a link to my 18yo's, there is a few more 13+ PT's in there but still surprisingly quite a lot still in the 10-11 PT range

http://hj2.huntandjump.com/adv_search.php?runsearch=1&status=any&ageg=&agel=&agee=18&erag=&eral=&erae=&heightg=&heightl=&heighte=&boneg=&bonel=&bonee=&f_basic=none&f_adv=points_py&f_limit=25&gelding=1&spayedmare=1&bty=1&lined=lined&foundation=1&name=&name_lm=like&color=&color_lm=like&owner=145&owner_lm=like&breeder=&breeder_lm=like&sire=&sire_lm=like&dam=&dam_lm=like&barn=&barn_lm=like&pasture=&past_lm=like&tattoo=&tat_lm=like&tat_and=and&club=&bc_lm=like&bc_and=and&e1=&e2=&a1=&a4=&a2=&a3=&f1=&f2=&p1=&p2=&s1=&s2=&s3=&c1=&c2=&c3=&d1=&d2=&g1=&g2=&ch1=&ch2=&z1=&z2=&sa2=&sa1=&mu2=&mu1=&chn2=&chn1=&kit1=&kit2=&kit3=&kit4=&kit5=&kit6=&kit10=&kit11=&kit12=&kit7=&kit8=&kit9=&sp1=&sp2=&sp3=&spM=&pax31=&pax32=&rb1=&rb2=&o1=&o2=&l1=&l2=&ice1=&icei=&ice2=&ice3=&ice4=&ice5=&ice6=&ice7=&ice8=&ice9=&ice10=&ice11=&ice12=&ice13=&ice14=&nexn=&nexx=&nexr=&nexg=&nexb=&nexw=&rainr=&rainwt=&rainpl=&raint=&rainna=&brindle1=1&brindle2=1&wf1=1&wf2=1&wf3=1&wf4=1&wf5=1&wf6=1

kintara · Oct 3, 2018 7:37 AM

Here is two 18yo's with similar points, one has a PT of 13.2, the other a PT of 10.6

This one with a higher PT has been in 8W all of this calendar year

KT8 913963

This one with a lower PT has been in 7W all of this calendar year

KT3 872467

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 4:02 PM

Updated up to DevilsParadise.

I think I will do the 16 YO horse data points in one color, 15YO data points in another, and 17YO in another.

@TallTree

I didn't realize some people waited to show their horses until later.... Since I have all of mine on auto show settings I just let them show at a young age, so I think we will stick with that.

Getting the rest of those data points entered ASAP. So far, I've not been noticing as strong of a correlation as I thought there would be. I'll put the link in the original post so everyone can see.

Edit 1 :
Edited up to first page of Bandit's horses as well. Starting to look interesting! I will probably do another page right now then I need to go do scholarship stuff....

Edit 2:

Now up to 3 pages of Bandit horses.

Maribo · Oct 3, 2018 6:05 PM

Thank you for choosing 16 yos, because that is without a doubt the year I have the least horses in. lol. And only 1(!) horse that have been altered as a foal.

10.3, 1536

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 6:51 PM

Wow, I wonder why so many people bred less horses that year. Lol.

Got your point Maribo.

Apparently I have to get a new link every time I update the draft. Now the link up top should work.

Painted Dreams · Oct 3, 2018 6:55 PM

This is a fun experiment! The data is very interesting so far. Here are my ponies. I'm 99% sure they were all snipped as a foal and showed 2x a week.

10.80-1641
10.60-599.5
10.60-1084
10.60-829.5
10.50-696
10.50-668
10.5-1370
10.50-1984
10.50-2234
9.3-696

Let me know if you would like the link as well! :D

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 7:15 PM

Painted Dreams, just the points are fine, thank you!

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/q5czp1h23r

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 7:36 PM

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/heco56u0kc

Skipped ahead and did Painted Dreams horses. Going back for Kintara's 15YO's and 17YO's but doing them in a different color.
Do you think I should make more graph's for different ages, or put it all on the same graph with different color points for different ages?

supersarah · Oct 3, 2018 7:52 PM

10.6 - 2414
10.8 - 2272
10.5 - 2252
10.4 - 2251
10.5 - 2244
10.4 - 2241
10.4 - 2218
10.5 - 2212
10.6 - 2208
10.6 - 2183
10.7 - 2153
10.2 - 2114
10.3 - 2114
10.4 - 2096
These are my top pointed 16 year olds.
Link to the rest http://hj2.huntandjump.com/adv_search.php?runsearch=1&status=any&ageg=15&agel=17&agee=&erag=&eral=&erae=&heightg=&heightl=&heighte=&boneg=&bonel=&bonee=&f_basic=none&f_adv=points_py&f_limit=25&gelding=1&spayedmare=1&bty=1&lined=lined&foundation=1&name=&name_lm=like&color=&color_lm=like&owner=21047&owner_lm=like&breeder=21047&breeder_lm=like&sire=&sire_lm=like&dam=&dam_lm=like&barn=&barn_lm=like&pasture=&past_lm=like&tattoo=&tat_lm=like&tat_and=and&club=&bc_lm=like&bc_and=and&e1=&e2=&a1=&a4=&a2=&a3=&f1=&f2=&p1=&p2=&s1=&s2=&s3=&c1=&c2=&c3=&d1=&d2=&g1=&g2=&ch1=&ch2=&z1=&z2=&sa2=&sa1=&mu2=&mu1=&chn2=&chn1=&kit1=&kit2=&kit3=&kit4=&kit5=&kit6=&kit10=&kit11=&kit12=&kit7=&kit8=&kit9=&sp1=&sp2=&sp3=&spM=&pax31=&pax32=&rb1=&rb2=&o1=&o2=&l1=&l2=&ice1=&icei=&ice2=&ice3=&ice4=&ice5=&ice6=&ice7=&ice8=&ice9=&ice10=&ice11=&ice12=&ice13=&ice14=&nexn=&nexx=&nexr=&nexg=&nexb=&nexw=&rainr=&rainwt=&rainpl=&raint=&rainna=&brindle1=1&brindle2=1&wf1=1&wf2=1&wf3=1&wf4=1&wf5=1&wf6=1

dark star · Oct 3, 2018 7:53 PM

I have almost 250 snipped 16 year olds. Most, if not all, were snipped as foals, and 100% all the geldings were snipped as foals. My user ID is 148, if you want to search for them.

Dinascar · Oct 3, 2018 8:37 PM

This is interesting...
I actually think PTs of about 9.9-10.8 do better than PTs of 11- 12 and then really good when you get 12.3+ (all due to where they end up leveling out) but I have no hard data on that.
I have 2 pages of altered horses but the mares may have had times in the pastures (and since speyed) so I am only including geldings that I know have been shown 2xdaily since birth:-

10.1PT 470pts
10.6PT 2212pts
10.8PT 828pts
11.1PT 689pts
10.7PT 554pts
10.4PT 1350pts
11.1PT 734pts
10.5PT 850pts
10.9PT 2238pts
10.5PT 1525pts
10.5PT 2366pts
9.2PT 608pts

Dinascar · Oct 3, 2018 8:40 PM

Just looked at your graph - looks like my hunch is right :)

Prancer · Oct 3, 2018 9:09 PM

I don't have many but I was still pretty new then.
11.10 - 619
10.10 - 1744
10.0 - 739
11.1 - 606.5

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 9:17 PM

Thanks everyone!

@Prancer

Yea... I had only had 4 horses as well.

@Dinascar

That is crazy.... Makes me want to go and sell most of my 11-12PT young show horses. This kinda makes me nervous as the vast majority of my show horses are 11-12PT.

Dinascar · Oct 3, 2018 9:26 PM

There are always exceptions but yes lots of mine are between 11 and 12PT as well. But I have a daily income of nearly 100k so I am not overly worried - I bet your's is similar ;)

Dinascar · Oct 3, 2018 9:27 PM

It makes me want to keep all those 10s instead! Even more show ponies :D

Dinascar · Oct 3, 2018 9:30 PM

You were obviously busy last summer Maribo ;)

dark star · Oct 3, 2018 10:01 PM

The high 11 low 12 horses all end up in 8 world level. It’s a huge level that covers a large range of PT scores, where as the 10 and bellows end up in levels that encompass a much small range of PT scores. As scores keep going up the high 11 low 12 horses are going to struggle to place at all, as they will be competing agains high 12 and 13+ horses. It becomes less of where they level off and more that they simply can’t level off in a place that is competitive with the higher PTed horses. Only fix for this would be restructuring the showing system. It hasn’t been needed in HJ1, so we are unlikely to see a change either.

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 10:58 PM

Interesting.

Your theory makes sense to me!

I wonder if there will be a similar affect to say the 12's as 13's and 14's become more common. Or do you think because so many people have 11's that it's just more to chance as they are competing against each other. But 12's and 13's have less horses?

GeneverGinger · Oct 3, 2018 11:16 PM

This is super interesting! Thanks for collecting the data and mapping it out for us.

HunterUnderSaddleGirl · Oct 3, 2018 11:57 PM

This has been eye opening for me. Most of my best show horses are top 11's I've always wondered why I had the weird feeling that that the lower PT's were doing better.

I just went through my 10YO's and up (I require they have at least 500 points by age 10), and was shocked at how many were 11.9 PT.

kintara · Oct 4, 2018 7:49 AM

It's certainly been interesting, if nothing else is gained from it, it certainly shows that the lower PT's can still make you money!!

strawroan · Oct 4, 2018 12:01 PM

This was a great experiment and is making me re-evaluate my current protocol for culling show ponies. Thanks HUSG!

RubyJoFarm · Oct 4, 2018 12:48 PM

10.7 - 795
10.6 - 2220
10.5 - 822
9.8 - 648
9.5 - 998
8.7 - 369

High Five Acres · Oct 4, 2018 1:34 PM

I've got about 80 16y/o 's that were snipped at birth and auto shown. Their pt scores range from 11.8 to 12.9 and ponits from 2800 to 1070. I do tend to dump anything under certain earnings at certain ages, so these horses were heavily culled over the past seasons.

16 year olds

ChilliFireFarm · Oct 9, 2018 5:38 PM

11.2 - 636
10.4 - 514
10.4 - 1052
9.8 - 850
10.4 - 1540
10.1 - 1045
10.2 - 1025
9.9 - 1406
10.2 - 1200
10.5 - 2446
10.5 - 1802
10.4 - 2144
Al my geldings that I am certain have been shown every week 2x.
:)

Ammit · Oct 11, 2018 10:00 AM

It is explicitly how well/hard they will train as well as how long.

Stefliz · Jan 8, 2019 2:31 PM

I dont know if you want any more data but I give it to you anyway Lol
Im almost 90% sure that these are snipped as foals and has been shown 2 times a week, I have auto show :) But i might have hade a brake from the game a while back so i don't know if you want my data ^_^

8,90 - 483
8,90 - 363
9,30 - 376
9,60 - 427
9,90 - 391
10,30 - 596
10,50 - 556

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