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I would look at what she is being bred to, if the foals are consistent/inconsistent, and if all foals are kept or only the intact foals. If only intact foals are kept, then some of the altered foals could have had higher PT, and when they are removed, their PT doesn't count anymore.

How old is the mare? How many foals has she had?

They throw from a range, there is no guarantee what end of the range the mare will throw during a given season. One season my 9.9 could throw a 10.5, the next I could get a 9.5. It just depends on the roll of the dice when you hit breed.

It’s not much to be judged by, but after those 3 seasons you have your fillies ready to age up, which should be better breeding quality if they passed testing. PT and breeding ability aren’t really related, but you can breed for a higher PT and hope you get it. So just because they threw a lower PT score doesn’t mean they are bad breeders. After those 3 seasons it’s really up to you on if you pull the older mares out to make room for the new girls, or keep breeding the older mares until you see what your new fillies do. Just depends how much room you have available.

I don't do pasture bonus so far. Everything I have must show as I'm still trying to build my daily bonus. I keep all speld foals 10.5+ as show ponies and also all culls that have 100+ points when spayed/gelded. I haven't bought any extra pastures. I have the basic upgrade. I'm just starting to breed a few 3rd gens now. I've been breeding 2nd gens for a while and it's quite easy to see who to cull and who to keep with them most of the time. I try to breed for improvement in both papering and PT scores. I comparison test and keep only one stallion per generation for each line. When a new young one ages up to breeding age he comparison tests against the current one. Superior stays and the other gets gelded and goes to the show barn. If they're AgA I cull based on the one I like better or sometimes the PT score if I like them both. Any colts born during a particular breeding season are weeded down to the superior one, so there is only one possible contender from each breeding season. I keep a 15 stall barn for the Gen 2 mares for each line. I use the foundation RS with create mares to keep those revolving. Eventually they should be full with pretty high quality AFPT mares as the duds get culled out and replaced. For each generation I will keep a 15 stall barn as required. All the stallions reside in the barn with the foundation RS sire. Maybe this sounds confusing. If so, apologies.

@Cheers I bought some of the mares you auctioned to raise the levels of my foals. I only had a couple red mares so hopefully this crop will be a good one.

True. Two perfect foundation parents can have foals with PT scores ranging from 8.9 to 10.4, I believe. Scores somewhere in the middle are the most likely.